米中デカップリングの虚実

Abstract

As the tension between the US and China rises to the level of a new Cold War, some observers say that moves are afoot to "decouple" the economic ties between the two countries. Some politicians and policymakers say Japanese companies should follow this movement. Japan has maintained an alliance with the US, but its economy is closely tied to China. Unlike American corporations, Japanese companies have built their supply chains across Asia, predominantly in China and Southeast Asia. Decoupling from China in lockstep with the US would deeply hurt the Japanese economy. Besides, truth be told, the US's decoupling maneuvers have so far been selective and limited to the military and high-tech spheres in reality; China and the US still remain each other's biggest trading partner. Japan needs to read the reality behind the rhetoric of US-China decoupling carefully and chart its own course in economic policies while ensuring that they are compatible with its national security strategy. Doing so should also further cement Japan's relationship with Southeast Asia, a region where a large chunk of Japan's supply chains operates, and where countries are careful to avoid taking sides between the US and China.